DEADLOCK. WHY DOESN’T TAJIKISTAN JOIN THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION?

Before Vladimir Putin’s visit to Tajikistan, some Russian media discussed the issue of Tajikistan’s entry into the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) between the presidents of the two countries. The economic analyst of “Oyina” also raised the question: why doesn’t Tajikistan join the EAEU? And of course, in this article, he tried to find an answer to this question.

Tajik labor migrants provide 70% of the welfare of the country’s population. They play a significant role in the increase of gross national income. Labor migration to Russia and other CIS countries is considered a strategic issue for Tajikistan. However, in recent years, Tajikistan has not been striving to join the EAEU, which would at least ease the stay of Tajik labor migrants in the main migrant-receiving countries. Currently, Tajik migrants have the right to work abroad, particularly in Russia, for up to three months. If they obtain a work permit or patent, they have the right to extend their stay for another three months.

If Tajikistan were to join this organization, Tajik labor migrants would enjoy many benefits similar to those of Kyrgyz labor migrants. Currently, Kyrgyz labor migrants in Russia feel free, and their rights are equal to those of Russian citizens. This is because the EAEU provides them with such privileges and rights.

According to the laws of this union, a single labor market has been established within the territories of the EAEU member states. Each member country has the right to work in another member country. According to this provision, every worker is entitled to benefits in another country and, in the future, to a pension.

Currently, the fate of those Tajik labor migrants working in Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, and Uzbekistan is uncertain. They do not have a labor book and do not have the right to claim a pension in the future.

I would like to remind you that labor migrants cover about 70% of the living expenses of the Tajik population. The state of Tajikistan provides only 30% of the purchasing power for daily necessities, utility payments, taxes, and so on. It is for this reason that most experts consider labor migration a strategic issue for Tajikistan. If this issue is so important for Tajikistan, why do the authorities refrain from joining this organization?

The authorities claim that the requirements of this organization undermine the country’s independence. Specifically, they argue that joining the EAEU will reduce Tajikistan’s budget revenues. Let’s return to the issue of the national budget.

Currently, 85% of Tajikistan’s budget revenues come from high taxes imposed on the population, customs duties, fines, and other charges. It is impossible to find a country in the world like Tajikistan, where the entire hope for filling the budget relies on tax and customs duty collections. Even employees of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic consider this economic development path to be a dead end. According to them, due to this approach, Tajikistan is forced to increase tax collection annually. However, on the other hand, the number of small and large enterprises in the republic decreases year by year due to heavy tax conditions. In short, heavy taxation reduces the number of taxpayers.

That is why the experts of the Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan have called this state policy a path to a dead end. However, the government of Tajikistan does not pay attention to the opinions of scientists and specialists because the state of Tajikistan is not built on the real foundations of science and culture. All decisions are made by those close to power and are implemented with their personal interests in mind. Enterprises owned by the closest associates are exempt from paying taxes or duties.

Meanwhile, experts believe that if Tajikistan joins the EAEU, customs tariffs will disappear. The Tajik customs authorities will no longer be able to collect taxes and customs duties on goods traded within the union’s territory. According to experts, this income amounts to about $200 million annually. This $200 million is not a significant amount for Tajikistan’s budget. However, if Tajikistan joins this organization, the problem of labor migrants’ stay will be completely resolved, and the country’s labor migrants will be able to work within the union’s territory for not just three months but for many years, sending money to Tajikistan. This could amount to three to four times the $200 million annually. Moreover, Tajik authorities argue that joining this organization will undermine the republic’s independence in production. That is, Tajikistan will not be able to produce whatever it wants because the union will not allow it.

If you remember, during the Soviet era, there was a law on the international division of labor, according to which various types of activities in industry and agriculture were distributed. For example, the Central Asian countries specialized in cotton production, while Russia and Ukraine focused on the textile industry. The cotton produced in Central Asia was turned into clothing by Russia and Ukraine.

According to the authorities, Tajikistan is an independent country and will produce whatever is necessary for itself. In this regard, it should be noted that the kind of independence of countries imagined by the Tajik authorities does not exist in the world. Secondly, Tajikistan became independent. Well, how many types of passenger and freight cars, how many aircraft have been exported to the global market to compete with Russia and other countries? Tajikistan has nothing else to offer in global markets except dried apricots and raisins.

Tajikistan imports all kinds of food, fuel, equipment, and machinery from Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. So what production in Tajikistan will be limited by joining this organization? These claims by the government do not have a real basis and are simply an excuse to cover up the interests of those close to power. In Tajikistan, all imported goods are monopolized by the state and its banks.

In conclusion, joining the EAEU would be beneficial for labor migrants and would open wide opportunities for improving the welfare of the people. However, it is not beneficial for those close to power because the unification of customs tariffs will harm their ability to smuggle goods and maintain their comfortable lifestyle.

Hikmati Darvesh