Flour Prices Are Rising in Tajikistan

WARNING: Flour Prices Are Rising in Tajikistan The increase in flour prices on the markets of Tajikistan, combined with an uneasy calm in Kazakhstan—a country that is Tajikistan’s main supplier of wheat—has alarmed experts. As a result, specialists are predicting a further rise in flour and wheat prices in Tajikistan. Currently, the price of flour in Tajikistan has reached 7.5-8 somoni per kilogram. A 50-kilogram sack of flour is being sold in stores for 350 to 370 somoni. However, experts warn that this is not the final price, and there is little hope for a good harvest or price reduction by the end of the year. The reason is that heavy May rains damaged the wheat crops grown in home gardens. These unfavorable weather conditions hit the crops at a time when Tajikistan was already struggling to supply its population with domestically produced flour and

wheat. Tajikistan imports the wheat and flour it needs from Kazakhstan and Russia. Therefore, the prices of these products in Tajikistan depend on the political and social situation in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan. Unlike in Europe and the United States, Russia’s economic situation remains stable, as confirmed by international organizations. Meanwhile, the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and other European countries have frozen the assets of major Russian oil and gas companies in their banks, depriving Russia of access to these funds. For example, under the pretext of conducting a special military operation in Ukraine, the U.S. has frozen over $300 billion of the Russian Central Bank’s reserves and intends to confiscate these funds. The U.K., Canada, and European Union countries are also targeting Russian assets within their territories. However, the sanctions imposed by the European Union and the U.S. have not significantly affected the Russian economy. On the contrary, the countries that imposed the sanctions are facing economic difficulties and rising inflation. The reason for the failure of U.S. and EU sanctions is that Russia decided to sell its export goods to these countries not for dollars or euros but for Russian rubles, thereby avoiding transactions in Western currencies. This raises a pressing question for Tajikistan: how will it pay for Russian wheat? Tajikistan needs 1.3 million tons of wheat and 1.1 million tons of flour annually. As mentioned earlier, Tajikistan mainly imports flour and wheat from Kazakhstan. However, experts believe that the current situation in Kazakhstan resembles the calm before a storm. Part of Kazakhstan’s population is dissatisfied with the president’s policies. These discontented individuals support former President Nazarbayev, who controls significant financial resources. Additionally, Kazakhstan’s oil and gas companies are owned by the U.S., the U.K., Canada, and other European countries. Experts believe that these companies, which were established with Nazarbayev’s approval and guidance, might exploit the public’s dissatisfaction to destabilize the situation in Kazakhstan. It is for this reason, they argue, that authorities decided against holding a military parade for Victory Day in Kazakhstan. Moreover, there is a possibility that this year Kazakhstan’s wheat reserves will be exported to European markets. Another important factor is Ukraine, the third most significant country in the post-Soviet space that could export wheat to global markets. However, Ukraine is currently at war, its future is uncertain, and its wheat exports are in question. Therefore, Tajikistan needs to find new markets for wheat imports this year. According to the World Food Organization, the world could soon face a global hunger crisis. In this context, the price of flour, currently 8 somoni per kilogram, could double or even triple. This is happening in a country where the average monthly salary ranges from 750 to 2,000 somoni, and pensions average around 200 somoni—an amount insufficient even to purchase one sack of flour.