STAGNATION, BARRENNESS, OR GOVERNMENT LIES IN TAJIKISTAN: WHERE SHOULD THE LOST PEOPLE GO?

For the past 30 years, Tajikistan's foreign trade balance has remained negative. This means that over three decades, the economy, particularly in terms of goods production, has not shown significant progress. Economists call this stagnation—moving in place.

However, every year, the government reports significant economic achievements. But the figures presented by the state do not reflect reality. These numbers are lies and baseless claims. An economy without exports is not an economy!

An example: Tajikistan annually exports goods worth about one billion US dollars. At the same time, the country imports goods worth 3.5-4 billion dollars. In other words, Tajikistan's imports are three times higher than its exports.

If Tajikistan exported goods worth about 3 billion dollars, we could say that the trade balance is positive and that the economy is advancing. But over 30 years, Tajikistan's foreign trade balance has never been positive. This is why the value of the national currency, the somoni, falls against foreign currencies every year, losing its position both in the domestic and foreign markets. The devaluation of the somoni has reached the point where, as people say, it has become "barren."

At the market, an old man asked a vendor:
- How much are the apricots?
- 15 somoni, - replied the vendor.
- And the cherries?
- 10 somoni.
- Hmm... barrenness, - said the old man and continued on his way.
- I caught up with the old man and asked him:
- Why did you say "barrenness" instead of just "expensive"?
- If I had asked why the prices are rising, the vendor would have surely replied that the dollar has become more expensive, transportation costs have increased, and so on. In some ways, he would be right, but in other ways, not. What does the dollar have to do with apricots? We don't buy fruit from America, do we?! Yesterday I asked about the price of potatoes. They said one kilogram costs 5 somoni. I thought, better to buy bread for 5 somoni. After all, you can eat potatoes without bread, but you can eat bread without potatoes, - said the old man.
- Why then "barrenness"?
- When people lie, the government lies, fathers lie to sons, wives lie to husbands, husbands lie to wives—blessing leaves people's lives. Have you heard the old legends, my son? - the old man asked me, and without waiting for an answer, continued: - When there's too much lying in a country, people flee from it...

When hardships and injustices arose, people would say that the blessing had left the city. People would migrate to other places. Now more than half of the population lives abroad with their wives and children. Every day, dozens and hundreds of citizens flee this "barren" land.

What does Tajikistan export? Yes, of course: cotton, aluminum, fresh and dried fruits, as well as precious stones and labor. If the money from selling cotton, yarn, fabric, aluminum, and fresh and dried fruits went to the state budget, Tajikistan could earn about 4 billion US dollars annually. But unfortunately, only 7 or 8 percent of the revenue from cotton and aluminum sales goes into the national budget, and the other 92 percent ends up in the coffers of companies close to the government.

For each kilogram of cotton and aluminum, there are two or three and sometimes more intermediary companies close to the government that take their cut from the sales. Most of these intermediary companies are registered in offshore zones, such as the British Virgin Islands and Cyprus. Millions of dollars are annually stored in these offshore accounts for the grandchildren and great-grandchildren, for a rainy day.

The fate of precious stones is similar. The earnings from labor migrants account for about 70 percent of Tajikistan's purchasing power. The state also takes its share from these funds, which amount to around 1.5-2 billion dollars.

For example, now that the dollar exchange rate in Russia has stabilized at 62 rubles per dollar, Tajik banks are not giving dollars to the people. The excuse is that there are no dollars available. But they should be distributing dollars.

In the end, out of every 100 somoni exchanged, the banks take 35 somoni. And these funds are also stored in foreign markets for the grandchildren and great-grandchildren. The sad part is that everyone knows about the government's lies. That's why people lie too, the mullah lies, fathers lie to sons, wives lie to husbands, husbands lie to wives. Divorce rates have soared, and polygamy has become commonplace.

In such a situation, where do the lost people of Tajikistan, standing at the crossroads of life, go? Where are those wise men and scholars who can answer these questions?