Alexander Knyazev: "The Taliban does not pose a threat to Central Asia"

With the Taliban coming to power in Afghanistan, concerns among the authorities in Tajikistan about threats from this neighboring country have intensified.

Even during the meeting of leaders of CSTO member states in May this year, held to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, these threats were addressed, and the authorities of the country continue to express their concerns in various ways. A recent example of this is the speech by President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon during a meeting with the heads of Central Asian states in Kyrgyzstan.

Considering these factors, **Oiina** decided to conduct an interview with Alexander Knyazev, Doctor of Historical Sciences and professor at Saint Petersburg State University, an expert on Afghanistan and political affairs, to discuss the potential of the CSTO and the threats facing its member countries.

Since the change of government in Afghanistan, the issue of increasing threats to Central Asian countries has been raised multiple times in meetings of CSTO representatives. However, no detailed explanation has been provided on this matter. We would like to hear your opinion on the possible level of these threats and who might be the source.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization is an organization with the goal of identifying external threats and preventing them for member countries. The main threats to security and stability lie within each country or in bilateral relations between member states. For example, such a threat exists in the relations between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Therefore, not all existing threats are discussed within the CSTO framework, as some members oppose the organization's involvement in resolving conflicts between member states, including the border conflict between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

External threats are currently linked to foreign actors: we saw this in the January events in Kazakhstan and the recent events in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan, in late June and early July. In Kazakhstan, the CSTO provided assistance. Uzbekistan, although not a member of the organization, has a bilateral alliance agreement with Russia. However, this country did not need external assistance.

The CSTO focuses on external threats in accordance with its charter objectives. Recently, the traditional list of CSTO threats has also included the need for information security, which is an important aspect for the organization.

"Oiina": Usually, these threats are associated with the situation in Afghanistan, but we see that Central Asian countries, especially Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, as well as to some extent Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, maintain ties with Afghanistan. In this case, could the Taliban pose a threat to these countries, which are also under Russia's protection?

Alexander Knyazev: The Taliban does not threaten Central Asia. Threats related to Afghanistan are not created by the Taliban, which has been in power in the country for about a year. The threats stem from the lack of effective state institutions (before the Taliban’s rise to power) that could control and stop the activities of drug producers and extremist and terrorist groups. However, with the Taliban coming to power, the overall level of security in the country has significantly increased. The Taliban was the only force in Afghanistan even before coming to power that fought against the Islamic State.

At the moment, there is no other political force besides the Taliban capable of preventing the escalation of war in Afghanistan, so this cooperation is being expanded not only by Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, but also by Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, India, Turkey, and some Arab countries. This is the only way to strengthen both security and the socio-economic situation in Afghanistan. If cooperation is not established with the government that has already been in power for about a year, then who else can be worked with?

"Oiina": More than any other country in Central Asia, Uzbekistan showed interest in cooperation with Afghanistan even before the Taliban came to power. Now that the Taliban is in power, Tashkent has announced the completion of the restoration of the Mazar-i-Sharif airport and is showing serious interest in the Termez-Peshawar railway project. Why?

Alexander Knyazev: The benefit for Uzbekistan and all neighboring countries of Afghanistan, except for Tajikistan, lies in establishing the necessary level of stability in Afghanistan and implementing socio-economic projects that serve the interests of all countries in the region.

"Oiina": Recently, Russia announced that it had registered a diplomat from the Taliban. What is your opinion on the prospect of recognizing the Taliban government in Central Asia?

Alexander Knyazev: Diplomats appointed by the Taliban have been registered not only in Moscow, but also in Beijing, Islamabad, Ashgabat, and Tashkent. In international law, there is no comprehensive procedure for recognizing a particular government. Recognition of a government is not a legal issue, but a political one. That is why this government has already been practically recognized by many countries, and as cooperation expands, the issue of legitimacy will gradually disappear on its own.

"Oiina": Sometimes the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is compared to NATO. Do you think this comparison is valid?

Alexander Knyazev: The CSTO is a military-political organization with a purely defensive nature. NATO is an aggressive and offensive alliance. There can be no comparison between these two organizations.

"Oiina": The leadership of the CSTO, judging by recent events in Kazakhstan, seems satisfied with the readiness of the alliance to deal with security challenges. How do you evaluate this?

Alexander Knyazev: The CSTO participates in resolving internal security issues when these problems are initiated and provoked by countries that are not members of the organization.

"Oiina": Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine showed that not all Central Asian countries, which are under Russia’s protection, supported this action. Does this indicate a split among the member countries or...?

Alexander Knyazev: What does “supported” mean? Not a single country in the region supported the UN General Assembly resolutions against Russia, and none of the countries in the region backed the sanctions imposed by the US, the UK, or the EU against Russia. All countries are currently discussing how to continue cooperating with Russia while avoiding "secondary" sanctions. Russia's policy towards Central Asia will now toughen, and the countries in the region will face a choice: either they support Russia (as well as China and many countries not linked to the “West”), or they will face the grim fate of Ukraine. The possibilities for a multi-vector policy are becoming limited and are disappearing. The situation in Ukraine is just a part of a global conflict in which a choice must be made.

"Oiina": Currently, there is much talk about Turkey's attempts to expand its influence in Central Asia. How far can this NATO member spread its influence in a region under Russia's protection?

Alexander Knyazev: Turkey's influence in Central Asian countries is limited. Turkey cannot replace Russia or China in any area: neither in economics, nor in politics, nor in the military sphere, or any other. In the fields of culture and education, as well as in small and medium businesses, there are mutually beneficial relations, but the possibility of expanding this cooperation beyond these areas is practically nonexistent.

"Oiina": Can the rapprochement between Dushanbe and Tehran, especially the recent military cooperation between Tajikistan and Iran, be linked to regional rivalry between Ankara and Tehran?

Alexander Knyazev: Relations between Dushanbe and Tehran have not yet reached the level of 2015–2016, when there was almost a pause in the policies of these two countries. Therefore, one should be cautious when discussing the current relations between the Republic of Tajikistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Turkey is trying to increase its influence in Tajikistan, and some Arab countries are making similar attempts. This rivalry will undoubtedly occur, but it will not necessarily benefit anyone. Iran has the potential to strengthen its influence in Tajikistan, but it is better to wait and see the results of these developments in the future.

"Oiina": Thank you.