The Ukraine-Russia War: Who Has Benefited from This Conflict?

Today, despite the ongoing armed clashes between Ukraine and Russia, it is already possible to draw some preliminary conclusions about this war.

Both sides, exhausted by a war that has lasted nearly three years, no longer possess sufficient resources for significant changes on the front line. As a result, the military situation has stabilized in many areas, and the political and economic consequences are becoming more evident. Notably, neither side can be fully recognized as a winner or loser, but one main beneficiary has already emerged — China.

Let’s review the strategic goals and ultimate consequences for Russia. At the beginning of the conflict, Russia set ambitious goals for itself:

• to gain full control over Ukraine,
• to turn it into a satellite state,
• to remove NATO borders from its territory.

However, the reality turned out to be entirely different. Russia encountered fierce resistance and broad international support for Ukraine, including military, economic, and political assistance. As a result, Russia not only failed to achieve its goals but found itself in an even more vulnerable position. Instead of reducing NATO’s influence, Russia “gifted” itself a longer border with the alliance. The accession of Finland and Sweden extended Russia’s border with NATO by 1,500 kilometers, and the conflict line has now come significantly closer to its territory. Furthermore, the border between Ukraine and Russia has recently become the most dangerous line for Russians.

In addition, rather than strengthening its international position, Russia has faced significant economic pressure. Western sanctions and the withdrawal of many international companies from the Russian market have dealt a serious blow to its economy, which is now heavily dependent on a limited number of partners.

For Ukraine, the cost of freedom has come at the loss of its territories and the lives of hundreds of thousands of its citizens.

Nevertheless, Ukraine has managed to maintain its independence and repel Russia’s attempts to establish control over its territory. However, as already noted, this victory came at a high price:

• Ukraine has lost part of its territories, which are now under Russian control,
• Hundreds of thousands of people have died.
• Millions of Ukrainians have been forced to leave the country, leading to the largest migration crisis in Europe in the past decade.

Ukraine’s economy has suffered severely due to infrastructure destruction and armed conflicts, and it is now completely dependent on Western aid. While this aid covers a wide range — from arms supplies to economic subsidies — its long-term prospects remain uncertain.

Thus, while Ukraine was able to fend off the Russian invasion, its position does not allow it to be declared a full victor. The country remains in a fully militarized state and is heavily dependent on external resources, and its economy needs substantial programs and investments for recovery.

The European Union, which has provided significant support to Ukraine, has also suffered considerable losses. Russia, which was previously one of Europe’s major trading partners, is now almost completely excluded from the European economy, depriving Europe of access to Russian energy resources and leading to internal economic difficulties. European countries have faced energy shortages and rising fuel prices, creating additional risks for their economies.

It is noteworthy that, although the sanctions pressured Russia, they did not lead to its complete economic collapse. Instead, Russia began expanding its relations with China, which increased Moscow’s economic dependence on Beijing.

As mentioned, China has become the primary beneficiary of this conflict. China has taken the most advantageous position. Above all, Beijing chose neutrality, refraining from direct intervention and not joining the sanctions against Russia. At the same time, as Western sanctions intensified, Russia increasingly needed access to Chinese markets and technology.

As a result, China has skillfully taken advantage of the unique opportunity to strengthen its position. China is now Russia’s main economic partner, which brings Beijing significant benefits. Russia’s resources — from oil and gas to industrial goods — are now available to China at lower-than-market prices, and Russia’s growing reliance on Chinese technology allows Beijing to reap significant profits.

This situation strengthens China’s position in the face of a potential conflict with the United States and its allies. In the future, China could use Russia as a partner, which would be a considerable advantage for China if tensions with the West escalate.

Ultimately, recent global conflicts are leading us to a new “Cold War” and a shift in the balance of power.

After the U.S. presidential election, a new Cold War, this time between the West and China, is likely to begin. China is already preparing for this confrontation by strengthening its position among Southern countries. Beijing actively cooperates with countries in the Arab world, Iran, Russia, Central Asia, South America, and some African countries, which have already become major trading partners for China.

The future confrontation will most likely have an economic character rather than ideological, unlike the U.S. struggle with the Soviet Union.

Moreover, China plans to regain control over Taiwan by 2030, which will intensify tensions with the West. The confrontation will be complex and will include competition for trade, technology, and control over raw material resources.

China is not Russia! But by using Russian resources and its global influence, China can create a broad alliance that will allow it to effectively counter America’s influence worldwide.

Thus, a new phase of global confrontation begins.

As a result, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become something of an introduction to a new stage of global confrontation between the West and the East. Although neither side of the conflict has achieved its original goals, China has managed to extract significant benefits from the situation. Against the backdrop of global changes, China is strengthening its position and preparing for the next stage of economic and political confrontation with the West.

In conclusion, the war between Russia and Ukraine has not led to an absolute victory for either side. However, China, which has benefited from Russia’s weakening and the new arrangement of economic and political relations, has become the key beneficiary of this conflict. In the future, as tensions between the United States and China increase, China will be able to use Russia and other allies to strengthen its position in the world. Especially since the war between Russia and Ukraine has provided China with this unique opportunity.