Tajikistan’s Participation in the Electric Car Purchase Race: Don’t Put on Boots Before Seeing the Water!

Officials from the Ministry of Transport of Tajikistan have announced the launch of a project that aims to increase the number of electric vehicles to 30% of all gasoline, gas, and hybrid vehicles by 2027.

Earlier, in March this year, Tajikistan's Minister of Finance, Faiziddin Kahhorzoda, also mentioned upcoming changes under which the import of all types of light and heavy electric vehicles would be exempt from customs duties and taxes for 10 years.

Khurshed Karimzoda, head of the Customs Service, also highlighted the benefits of importing these vehicles for the "green economy" and environmental protection.

Sodiqjon Nuralikhonzoda, a specialist in the Department of Ground Transport of the Ministry of Transport of Tajikistan, stated that this initiative is part of the Electric Transport Development Program for 2023–2027 and that the project has been submitted to the government for review and approval.

According to Nuralikhonzoda, currently, there are 527,000 officially registered vehicles in Tajikistan, but electric vehicles represent only a small share. In the first seven months of this year, 240 electric cars were imported, while in 2021, only 20 electric cars were brought in.

The import of electric vehicles into Tajikistan not only helps the environment but also leads to economic savings for households, as Tajikistan imports fuel, and fuel prices continue to rise each year.

Recently, Tajikistan’s Minister of Transport, Azim Ibrohim, also mentioned that the country annually imports fuel worth between $800 million and $1 billion. At the same time, according to him, the country has significant electricity production capacities and great potential for the use of electric vehicles.

However, the minister did not disclose the total costs for electricity, charging stations, infrastructure, spare parts, and electric vehicle equipment. The question remains whether the costs will be less than those currently being spent, but for now, this question remains unanswered.

The transition to electric cars is not only seen in Tajikistan but also in most Central Asian countries. For example, Kyrgyzstan imported 370 electric cars from China in the first half of 2022 at a total cost of $6.2 million, with an average price of around $17,000 per vehicle. Kyrgyzstan also spends about $1 billion annually on fuel imports.

Uzbekistan has also shown interest in electric vehicles, but the process has been slow: since 2018, approximately 100 electric cars have been imported into the country.

In Kazakhstan, which has announced plans to produce electric cars, domestic production has not yet started, and the import of such vehicles has decreased from 587 to 528 units compared to previous years.

However, the production and use of electric vehicles face many challenges, particularly in Central Asian countries. First, the production of these vehicles, especially their batteries, requires mineral resources (lithium carbonate, cathodes, anodes, rare earth metals, copper, aluminum), which not all countries possess in sufficient quantities. Additionally, the technology for manufacturing these components is complex. Kazakhstan faces difficulties due to limited reserves of these materials, as well as an unprepared infrastructure. Another issue for Kazakhstan will be addressed later.

The website “Spot.uz” reported a worsening situation with the maintenance of electric vehicles in Uzbekistan, stating: “Competition in this sector is deteriorating, and market players are unwilling to invest in service infrastructure. They are afraid of risks and are only engaged in buying and selling without establishing proper infrastructure. While electric cars are designed for long-term use and require regular maintenance and service, which requires insurance and guarantees, these conditions are not yet in place in Uzbekistan.”

Additionally, Uzbekistan has invested heavily in traditional fuel-powered car manufacturing, and the players in this industry are reluctant to lose their market share and are not interested in entering competition with electric vehicles. Therefore, the widespread adoption of electric cars in Uzbekistan is not expected in the near future.

According to experts, the issues of infrastructure and maintenance services for electric cars are priorities for countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which cannot bear these costs alone and will need external assistance. Especially considering that the cost of one charging station ranges from $6,000 to $50,000, depending on its capacity. Home charging equipment with lower capacity, which charges cars over a longer period (overnight), costs between $500 and $1,500. Additionally, the Central Asian countries themselves face electricity shortages in both winter and summer, and with increased electricity consumption, there will be further shortages and price hikes, negatively impacting households.

The second obstacle is that four key countries in the region — Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan — are not interested in this process. In particular, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan are oil-producing countries. These nations possess vast oil reserves and have strong oil lobbies that do not support the shift to electric vehicles, as they stand to lose significant revenue from oil. If electric vehicles become widespread, these countries will be deprived of a substantial portion of their income.

Overall, the global market for electric cars is growing. According to "Global Electric Vehicles," in 2020, 10 million electric cars were put into use, an increase of 43% compared to 2019. Notably, the COVID-19 pandemic positively impacted electric vehicle sales. For example, pre-pandemic forecasts from the European Union projected 33 million electric cars by 2030, but now this figure has risen to 40 million. It is expected that by 2040, electric vehicle sales will reach 56 million units.

The shift to electric cars shows that China will lead this market. Sooner or later, all vehicles will be electric, and China is already at the forefront of producing this type of vehicle. Recently, Citroen (a French company) claimed to have produced the cheapest electric cars, priced at $7,000. Meanwhile, China has been producing electric cars for less than $5,000 for three consecutive years. One of these models, the "Hongguang Mini EV," has become the best-selling electric car in the world, even surpassing Tesla's sales. In such a situation, it seems that despite all of Elon Musk’s investments, he will no longer be able to compete with China.