INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT, MIGRATION, OR JOINING THE RANKS OF THE UNEMPLOYED

We are in 2024, but the existing employment programs have not even reached the level of 2014. The program to regulate labor migration of Tajik citizens abroad is documented on paper, but in practice, it limps on both legs.

In recent years, the Tajik authorities, realizing that the program to regulate labor migration has not yielded significant results, emphasize that migration is a natural process, characteristic not only of Tajikistan but of the entire world. People migrate to other countries based on their opportunities and conditions. However, specialists from the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment of Tajikistan announced back in 2014 that they were developing a program to ensure employment within the country. The program for regulating migration processes in Tajikistan was approved on June 4, 2014, within the framework of Government Resolution No. 390 "On the Migration Service."

Anvar Boboev, the former head of the Migration Service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment of Tajikistan, stated in an interview with the newspaper "Jumhuriyat" in February 2015 that to ensure employment within Tajikistan, at least 200,000 job opportunities should be created annually. He noted that the creation of more than 250,000 jobs in 2014 was important, given the more than two percent population growth in Tajikistan.

According to the Agency of Statistics of Tajikistan, the population of the country in 2015 was 8.6 million people, and by 2020 it had reached 9.5 million people. The World Bank, in its 2018 report, described the rapid population growth in Tajikistan, which is not in line with the employment creation program, as a "time bomb" and a "double-edged sword."

World Bank experts believe that the young and growing population of Tajikistan, with proper scientific planning, could contribute to the economic and social development of the country. However, due to the lack of clarity on the issue of job creation in the future, this factor poses a threat to Tajikistan's security. Experts from the bank concluded that the state program for job creation in Tajikistan is limited, and the private sector has not yet reached the desired level of development to provide jobs for Tajik youth.

The report also notes that while one-third of Tajikistan's population is under 14 years old, the program for labor migration of this young workforce abroad remains unclear and ambiguous. According to World Bank experts, with high levels of unemployment and poverty, the existence of financial corruption and bribery in government institutions, and the lack of a clear employment program that corresponds with Tajikistan's population growth, this issue could create many problems for Tajikistan in the future.

In this report, the World Bank states that to meet the needs of Tajikistan's growing population, the country should build 170 new schools with a capacity of one thousand students each, hundreds of hospitals and medical centers, kindergartens, and industrial enterprises annually.

However, it seems that accurate calculations of population growth and job creation opportunities have been lost. Anvar Boboev, the former head of the Migration Service, expressed concern about the employment issue back in 2014, stating that the creation of less than 200,000 jobs per year was insufficient. Each year, more than 200,000 people enter the labor market in Tajikistan, and creating fewer job opportunities only exacerbates the crisis of migration and unemployment.

However, in 2021, the announced program for creating new jobs did not meet the needs of 2014. From 2014 to the present (2022), the population of Tajikistan increased by more than two million people, and naturally, the need for more job opportunities has grown. However, on December 21, 2021, in his address to the Majlisi Oli of Tajikistan, President Emomali Rahmon, considering the role of industry in the future development of the country and the resolution of social and economic issues, proposed that 2022-2026 (4 years), up to the 35th anniversary of Tajikistan's independence, be declared "Years of Industrial Development." During this period, more than 500,000 new jobs are expected to be created, the population's income is to increase by more than 2 times, and the share of the middle class is to reach 45 percent. This means that slightly more than 100,000 new jobs should be created annually until 2026. However, according to statistics, more than 200,000 people enter the labor market each year, and if this plan is followed, about 50 percent of the workforce will remain unemployed, which will not only fail to solve the employment problem within the country but will also increase unemployment and further complicate migration processes.

Thus, if 50 percent of the workforce remains unemployed each year, over 10 years, more than one million people in Tajikistan will join the ranks of the unemployed.

At the same time, the presented statistics concern only employment and do not take into account the data on bankruptcies of enterprises, unemployment, and the cessation of business activities over the years. For example, in 2020, the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of Tajikistan reported the suspension of 124 enterprises in the country during the first six months of the year. Or, as Samariddin Shamsiddinzoda, a representative of the State Committee on Investments and State Property Management of Tajikistan, reported, about 20,000 private sector workers ceased their activities in Tajikistan in 2021. Even if 200,000 people are employed annually in Tajikistan, another 20,000 may lose their jobs, which will increase the number of unemployed and complicate the implementation of the employment program.

In such a situation, the question arises: are we moving forward with the industrialization of the country, or are we going back to 2014?